### Are we being lured into feeling bullish? Are we all being manipulated to provide exit liquidity?

Anybody in any market knows that it’s impossible to predict short term movements with a high level of accuracy. What nobody can deny right now is that we are in a bear market. 

And, typically, in bear markets, good news doesn’t move the price. But throughout October and November, good news has oddly pushed the BTC, altcoin and memecoin prices up. 

It wasn’t long ago that a 20% move in our favorite crypto (digital asset) is what makes us excited; and, anything less just wasn’t enough to make us look very long. But now, 2% moves are exciting. Bitcoin’s volatility has become uncharacteristically low, except for the recent big upward movement. One thing that has us concerned about this rally is that there still seems to be a lot of time before we enter a bull market, if we base our analysis on the four year cycles. Below is a chart with monthly candles starting from 2011 up to the present. Taking this ‘birds eye’ view, we can see that we haven’t really been down for very long compared to past bear markets. 

This makes us believe that it is possible that there is some whale manipulation to cause some excitement over crypto. Why would whales want this? Well, if insiders know that there is another event looming on the horizon that will bring significant downward pressure to crypto, they may want to sell some of their positions. The problem with being a whale though is that there isn’t necessarily enough liquidity to absorb your selling. Whales may have too much crypto to be able to easily exit. So a seller might wait for liquidity or even influence the market to drum up more buying and selling. 

Either way, manipulated or not, this rally is an exit opportunity. Why then would whales want to exit now? Well, we can point to the uncertainty forming around FTX and Alameda Research and the FTT token. In this coindesk [article](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/11/06/binance-sells-holdings-of-ftx-token-asalameda-ceo-defends-firms-financial-condition/), Alameda CEO is reported to be defending the company. Still, unconfirmed rumors of Alameda bankruptcy are [spreading](https://imagedelivery.net/HML6qmlXDXx6EPV6zNm9VA/49608e79-58fb-47c9-f15c-b731950d9500/public)

If there really is a problem like bankruptcy on the part of Alameda Research, that even could create another liquidity vacuum that brings the prices of crypto to an even lower level. Right now, even without any confirmation, there already is somewhat of an issue because rumors and doubt have a real effect on markets whether true or not. 

Even in the scenario of lower crypto prices, we believe that opportunities abound for retail investors and regular folks. For us at cryptoflash.report, we see this entire season as an accumulation season. Drops in prices are prime opportunities to buy more bitcoin and our favorite altcoins at cheaper prices. 

Our FIAT or stables stash will go a much longer way. That isn’t so bad (if you can stomach your portfolio valuation going down). Are you ready for lower price levels? Even if it never happens, we should all still be ready and have a plan. Let us know what you think! Will we see prices come down or does the moonvember rally have enough strength to push into the end of the year? Is the moonvember rally a trap?



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